Democracy and Elections in Cape Verde and Guinea-Bissau
African Studies and Anthropology, Rhode Island College
Paper presented on 12 February 1996,
Watson Institute, Brown University
Introduction
Much of the news from Africa presents grim realities of civil strife, ethnic
cleansing, military despots, social oppression, and grinding poverty. However
the news is not all bad. In the case of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde, which
won their independence through armed struggle in the forest of "Portuguese"
Guinea from 1963 to 1974, the post independence period has been orderly with
the sole exception of a relatively bloodless coup in Bissau in 1980. On
the other hand, it is important to note that the process of political mobilization
in Guinea through the war of national liberation did not take place in Cape
Verde, so the deeper political roots of the Partido Africano da Independência
de Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC) did not grow. Moreover, the subsistence-based
economy of Guinea can be contrasted with the commercial economy of Cape
Verde. From 1975 to 1991 the centralized state-planned economy of Cape Verde
restricted this commerce while the counterpart in Guinea provided more
of an economic safety net.
More remarkable is that the transition to full-scale plural democracy has
been bloodless. This stands as much as an exception as well as a model to
those African states which wish to move from one party rule to political
pluralism and from essentially military rule to secular and democratic societies.
Even a new maritime border treaty between Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry
has been concluded without conflict.
In the present African context these achievements deserve close scrutiny
and wide application to break the tragic cycle of successive military regimes
and ethnic tyrannies. It seems that democratic federalism of one sort or
another is one of the few routes to civil peace, collective development,
and individual rights. Thus, this paper takes a close look at these two
West African nations which had been joined politically from 1975 to 1980
and have notable affinities in the period ever since, especially in the
PAIGC/PAICV party which was founded by one of Africa's greatest revolutionary
theoreticians, the Cape Verdean Amilcar Cabral.
The First Multi-Party Elections in Cape Verde
Since the 1975 election/referendum which voted exclusively for PAIGC candidates
(within a constitutional one-party state) there were no other major elections
in Cape Verde, except for delegates to the Assembleia Nacional Popular (ANP).
This was changed in 1991 when the PAICV allowed constitutional revisions
permitting an opposition party, the MpD, to run for the 79 seats in the
ANP, and to have an independent candidate run for President. These elections
took place on 13 January 1991 and resulted in the MpD winning 56 seats and
the PAICV only 23. The validity of the elections was judged by international
observers and the fact that the ruling party was voted out of power.
1991 Cape Verde Election Results
| Islands | Electoral Seats | PAICV | MPD
|
|---|
| Boa Vista | São João Baptista/ Santa Isabel | 2 | 0
|
| Brava | São João Baptista/ N.S. Do Monte | 1 | 1
|
| Fogo | N.S. Ajuda N.S. Conceição/ Santa Catarinha S. Lorenço | 2 2 1 | 0 1 1
|
| Maio | N.S. Da Luz | 1 | 1
|
| Sal | N.S. Das Dores | 1 | 1
|
| São Tiago
| Praia Urbano
Praia Rural I
Praia Rural II
S. Catarina
S. Salvador do Mundo
S. Lorenço dos Orgãos/ São Tiago Maior
S. Amaro Abade/ S. Miguel
| 4 0 1 1 0 1 1
| 8 2 1 5 2 4 4
|
| Santo Antao | N.S. do Livramento/ N.S. Do Rosario S. Crucifixo/
S. Pedro Apostolo S. Antonio Das Pombas S. Andre S. João Baptista
| 0 0 0 0 0
| 2 2 2 2 2
|
| S. Nicolau | N.S. Do Rosário N.S. Da Lapa | 1 0 | 2 2
|
| S. Vicente | N.S. Da Luz
| 2 | 10
|
| Diaspora: | Africa America Europe | 1 1 0 | 0 0 1
|
| TOTALS | | 23 | 56
|
Electoral Notes:
(The abbreviation S. stands for São/Santo or Saint; the letters N.S. stand
for Nossa Senhora or Our Lady.)
Cape Verdean-Americans and emigrants tended to support the PAICV. The Comissao
Eleitoral Nacional (CEN) reported 15-20 percent abstentions, and 159,988
registered voters in the islands and 6,830 among the emigrants. The MpD
opposition won 69 percent of votes, PAICV had 22 percent. Three seats in
the National Assembly were reserved for emigrants, i.e., 2 for the PAICV
from Africa and America, and one for the MpD from Europe.
In the direct popular vote for the separate Presidential elections in February
1991, the CEN announced 72 percent of the votes for António Mascarenhas
Monteiro and 26.2 percent for Aristides Pereira. Of the 159,667 registered
voters Monteiro got 70,582 and Pereira got 25,722. There were also 372 blank
votes at 0.28 percent, and 1,363 nullified votes at 1.39 percent. Elections
were calm and tranquil. Former Prime Minister Pedro Pires (q.v.) said that
despite the outcome, the elections represented a victory for pluripartidarismo
(multi-partyism). Pires did claim that Bishop D. Paulino Evora encouraged
voters to turn toward the MpD; now Pires considers himself a member of the
loyal opposition.
In the urban area of Praia the vote was 70 percent for Monteiro and in S.
Catarina it was 89 percent. There was also strong support for Monteiro in
São Vicente and Santo Antao. Monteiro was projected as the candidate for
youth and for change. He had been briefly in the PAIGC but left for his
studies in Belgium. He had been Judge-President of the Supreme Court of
Justice for the last ten years. After the MpD electoral victory of 13 January
1991, a new government was formed on 17 February 1991.
The First Multi-Party Elections in Guinea-Bissau
At independence, multi-party elections in Guinea-Bissau were excluded by
the one-party state. However, in the democratic reforms in the early l990's
the legal provisions were changed to allow this possibility. Elections were
promised and postponed in 1993 and 1994, and it appeared that they would
be delayed again. At last, on 3 July 1994 the elections were held. The elections
provided a plurality for the ruling party but they did not provide the required
majority margins. This necessitated a run-off election, but the two leading
candidates, João 'Nino' Vieira of the PAIGC and Kumba Yala of the Partido
da Renovação Social ( PRS ) . The results of the Legislative and Presidential
elections follow.
1. Results of the Guinea-Bissau Legislative Elections,
3 July 1994
| Party | Votes | Percentage | Deputies
|
|---|
| PAIGC | 143,982 | 37.92 | 62
|
| RGB/MB | 57,566 1 | 6.17 | 18
|
| UM | 17,797 | 10.34 | 6
|
| PRS | 29,957 | 8.42 | 12
|
| PCD | 15,411 | 4.33 | 0
|
| PUSD | 8,286 | 2.33 | 0
|
| FLING | 7,475 | 2.10 | 1
|
| FGC-SD | 494 | 0.14 | 0
|
Notes: Of the 400,000 registered voters,
there was an 88.91 turnout. The full names of the parties are found in the
list of abbreviations, with the exception of UM which is a coalition of
six parties led by Bubacar Djaló, who is the President of Liga Guineense
de Protecção Ecológia, LIPE (q.v.). The UM coalition consists of the Frente
Democratica, the Frente Democratica Social, LIPE, the Movimento para a Unidade
e Democracia, the Partido Democrático para Progresso, and the Partido para
Renovação e Desenvolvimento.
11. Results of the Guinea-Bissau Presidential Elections,
3 July 1994
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Percentage
|
|---|
| Nino Vieira | PAIGC | 142,577 | 46.20
|
| Kumba Yala | PRS | 67,518 | 21.88
|
| Domingos Fernandes | RGB/MB | 53,825 | 17.44
|
| Carlos Gomes | PCD | 15,645 | 5.07
|
| François Mendy | FLING | 8,655 | 2.80
|
| Bubacar Djal6 | UM | 8,506 | 2.76
|
| Victor S. Maria | PUSD | 6,388 | 2.07
|
| Antonieta R. Gomes | FCG-SD | 5,509 | 1.79 .
|
Notes:
See above notes for full party names. Carlos Gomes (PCD) was an independent
candidate supported only by PCD whose leader, Victor Mandinga, was not eligible
to run for President under the current election laws, which require that
both parents of the candidate be Guineans born in the country. The overall
turnout was 89.3% of the eligible voters.
The very surprising result of this part of the election was the much underestimated
young candidate of the PRS, Rumba Yala. The demography of Guinea-Bissau
shows that more that fifty-six percent of the population was born after
independence in 1973. Bissau itself has a population heavily composed of
youth. Election laws required a run-off election if the greatest percentage
of votes cast for President did not exceed fifty percent. Thus, the incumbent
President Vieira was required to face Kumba Yala in a second run-off election
scheduled for 7 August 1994. 111.
III. Results of the Second Round Presidential Elections.
| Region | Vieira | Yala | Location
|
|---|
| Tombali | 9,337 | 12,093 | South/Frontier
|
| Quinara | 8,450 | 6,003 | Central
|
| Oio | 19,400 | 31,588 | North/Central
|
| Biombo | 14,145 | 4,699 | Central/Coast
|
| Bolama/Bijagós | 9,866 | 877 | Archipelago
|
| Bafata | 24,788 | 16,715 | Central/East
|
| Gabu | 24,105 | 14,130 | Far East
|
| Cacheu | 13,572 | 20,160 | NW coast/Frontier
|
| Bissau | 36,267 | 41,253 | urban central
|
| Total | 159,930 | 147,518
|
| Percentage | (52.02%) | (47.98)
|
Notes: These results have been much contested by the coalition built
among supporters of Kumba Yala. They claim that they have won instead. Yala
hardly campaigned in the Bolama area. Supporters of the PAIGC have been
celebrating with great enthusiasm, including congratulations from the heads
of State of Senegal, France, Cape Verde, and Portugal.
THE SECOND MULTIPARTY ELECTIONS IN CAPE VERDE
In December 1995 the second Cape Verdean general legislative Elections were
held. Widespread predictions suggested that the MpD would suffer a notable
loss of popularity from the first election and that the PAICV would have
some notable recovery. The participation of additional parties (the PCD,
UCID, and PSP was believed that they would gain support at the expense of
the MPD. The actual results were quite different in fact. The margin of
victory for the MpD in the 1991 elections was almost the same in 1995 and
likewise the margin of defeat for the PAICV was little changed. Two of the
miniority parties (PSP, and UCID) were so humiliated that their political
future is at stake. The only party left with any political future was the
PCD, which gained support from some few defectors from the MpD and the PCD's
Eurico Monteiro has earned himself one legislative seat.
A Comparison of the 1991 and 1995 Cape Verde Elections
| 1991 Seats | 1995 Seats
|
| MpD | PAICV | MpD | PAICV | PCD
|
| Number | 56 | 23 | 50 | 21 | 1
|
| Percent | 70.8% | 29.1% | 69.4% | 29.1% | 1.3% .
|
Note: the total seats were 79 in 1991 and
72 in 1995.
A Comparison of the 1991 and 1995 Cape Verde Elections
(São Tiago Island ONLY)
| 1991 Seats | 1995 Seats
|
| MpD | PAICV | MpD | PAICV | PCD
|
| Number | 26 | 8 | 23 | 6 | 1
|
| Percent | 76.4% | 23.5 | 76.6 | 20.0 | 3.3%
|
These results for São Tiago are consistent at the national level. The PAICV
only managed to win in Fogo, the home island of the former Prime Minister
Pedro Pires. It improved a bit in São Nicolau. Generally the PAICV did not
recover from its first defeat and in the case of São Tiago they lost still
more, probably to the PCD to some small extent. Everywhere else the MpD
kept its former strength or gained a bit except for the small number of
defectors to the PCD.
In January 1996 the second phase of the elections was held for the Presidents
of the Camaras Municipais (City Mayors). Despite the landslide victory of
the MpD in the Legislative Assembly this was not exactly the case for these
elections. Here home-boy favorites seemed to play a greater role. Of the
sixteen contested seats, eight went to MpD candidates, or only 50% of the
positions. These are the Municipal Presidents of Praia, São Domingo, Santa
Cruz, Tarrafal, and Santa Catarina, all in São Tiago island as well as Brava,
São Nicolau and Porto Novo. The PAICV won in the two Camaras of São Filipe
and Mosteiros in Fogo and in the seats in Boa Vista and Sal. The MPRSV led
by maverick Mayor Onesimo Silveira won in São Vicente; MPASA, led by Manuel
Ribeiro took Maio, and in Santo Antao the town of Paul went to Alcides Tavares
and his GIDSP and Ribeira Grande went to Jorge Santos and the GDR. It is
apparent that these smaller splinter parties took votes from the MpD, while,
overall the PAICV kept the strength it showed in the national legislative
elections.
The final round of Cape Verdean elections slated for 18 February 1996 is
for the President. Within the Cape Verdean constitution this position is
non-partisan and serves mainly as a moderating backup government to the
Prime Minister. It appears that the current President Antonio Mascarenhas
Monteiro will run unopposed as he is supported by both the PAICV and the
MpD as a defender of democracy and human rights. The 1991 defeat of former
President Aristides Pereira of the PAICV was a great shock that this party
does not wish to repeat. They would probably have little chance in fielding
a new candidate associated with their party.
Conclusions
The post independence electoral experiences in Cape Verde and in Guinea-Bissau
are deep and genuine. In the Cape Verdean case the ruling party was peacefully
voted out of office and this has stayed this way in the second electoral
test. In Guinea-Bissau where the political issues between Cape Verdeans
and Guineans had been resolved" by demography and a coup, the ruling
PAIGC was genuinely opposed by a very wide diversity of parties and the
new comers were so well represented that it took a surprising second round
of elections to restore the ruling party to its position. In either case,
international observers have reported few glaring irregularities but future
elections could benefit from more rigorous observation of the election laws.
The old paternalism of the colonial era which suggested the Africans were
not ready for independence nor capable of observing democratic institutions
has been laid to rest. Other African nations, bedeviled with military despots
and ruling cliques could well benefit from the experience in Guinea-Bissau
and Cape Verde so as to focus more on social and economic development and
less or their personal aggrandizement.
Finally it seems that the PAIGC/PAICV in Cape Verde has failed to expand
its roots with the people. There was little question that the commercial
elites resisted the state planned economy from the very beginning but their
resistance was ineffective in the revolutionary moment of decolonization
and democratization in Portugal and its former African colonies. However
the poor of Cape Verde, especially concentrated in São Tiago, have also
been by- passed. Rather than demonstrating that their needs were not being
served by the MpD, they were apparently not convinced by the PAICV and the
margin for the MpD was solidified.
The effort of the PAICV to market the serious cholera epidemic (hundreds
of deaths and thousands of cases), drug and alcohol problems, some crime,
and high unemployment as political issues did not catch hold. On the other
hand the MpD's ability to attract quite substantial (European) foreign capital
within the framework of economic liberalization and privatization has built
widespread confidence that this will be a means for economic development
and political optimism.
Cape Verde has also carried out an ambitious foreign policy of good neighbors
in fishing and maritime agreements, new friends around the world, as well
as a positive role on the UN Security Council in matters from Rwandan refugees
to Angolan elections. Improved infrastructure in roads, ports, power, and
water, expansion of tourism, very liberal investment plans with no taxes
and profit repatriation, improved telecommunications and air transport and
fishing have earned the MpD a base of popularity strong enough to weather
criticism from the opposition. Relative stability in remittances from the
Cape Verdean diaspora has also helped the MpD. Perhaps memories of the former,
somewhat authoritarian and centralized state of the PAIGC/PAICV may also
have lingered in people's minds and the past issues relating to abortion
remain important, while the mystery of the death of Renato Cardozo was never
resolved. Indeed, it is a much changed unipolar world since the collapse
of the Cold War and its polarizing rhetoric on both sides. This has not
been to the advantage of the PAICV and its former international alliances.
Altogether the PAICV must do more work to regain the confidence of the people.
As is the practice in democratic elections, to the victor go the spoils.
The people have spoken. Despite the political pundits, Cape Verde has become
a graveyard of electoral prophecies which had predicted a very tight race
and a likely weak coalition government would be formed; this has simply
not been the case. Congratulations to the MpD for a second time. For "Nino"
in Guinea-Bissau, congratulations are also due as he has moved from the
military battlefield, to successful coup-maker, and now, finally to become
the first legitimately elected President in the nation's entire history.
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